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Analytics can explain sports, but it can’t explain everything

By Cyote Williams | Times Vedette

Asking sport fans how they feel about analytics usually results in one of two responses. The first answer is that sports are meant to be played on the field, not on the calculator. The second is that analytics have always been in sports, but we simply know how to use them better now.

I land somewhere in the middle. Sometimes I prefer when we get to see the deeper side of why something worked or didn’t work. Other times, I just want the game to go on, untouched. But what I truly like seeing is when people smarter than I am dissect the games they love.

I have two examples from this week that I found interesting. My favorite morning newsletter is Y! Sports AM, a daily roundup of all things sports from around the world. In addition to scores and highlights, they drop in Yahoo Sports articles. This week, writer Kendall Baker added the piece “A dying art,” which is about how the one-handed backhand in tennis is dying.

I’m not much of a tennis fan, if at all. Even so, the athletes are much more athletic than the world gives them credit for. See my point here between Ben Shelton and Carlos Alcaraz. But, as I stated, I love it when fans break down the game in ways I never could have thought of. Did you know that, from 1970-90, players with one-handed backhands won more than 60% of Grand Slams? I sure didn’t. These days, only five men ranked inside the top 100 use the swing. I would have never noticed that, but I’m glad someone did.

A realm I’m much more familiar with had its own new development. The NFL is increasingly experimenting with international games, and Commissioner Roger Goodell has stated publicly, multiple times, that he expects to see an international-based team join the NFL in his lifetime. With this influx of international travel, NFL teams have a new challenge to figure out.

The San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams played in Melbourne, Australia, yesterday. The teams took differing approaches in handling the time change and long travel. The 49ers flew into the land down under on Sept. 2, a full week before the game. They wanted to give their players as much time as possible to recharge after the travel and 17-hour time difference.

The Rams left the day before. The team’s theory — one they tested last season when playing in London — is that if they leave as close to before the game as possible, and leave right after the game is over, there would be no need for their body clocks to adjust. Last year, the Rams destroyed the Jags, but they Jags weren’t very good anyway. So, who’s to say it made that much of a difference?

Well, the 49ers won this year’s game, 27-7. This result flew in the face of what neurologist and sleep specialist W. Christopher Winter predicted, which was the basis for the column. The theory is that because athletes reach their physical peak typically in the late afternoon and early evening, the Rams players’ bodies would still feel like it’s 5:30 p.m. The 49ers, who let their bodies adjust, would be playing a time earlier than their peaks.

He was wrong, analytics and sleep studies be damned.

That is why I land somewhere in the middle on analytics. I want the numbers. I want the sleep studies, the percentages, the trends and the people who are much smarter than I am explaining why something should happen. But I also want to see what happens when the numbers are wrong.

That’s the beauty of sports. Analytics can tell us what is most likely to happen. They can tell us what has happened thousands of times before. They can even tell us what should happen next. But they cannot tell us what will happen. And sometimes, thankfully, a tennis player hits a shot that nobody saw coming, a football team ignores the science and wins anyway, and all the spreadsheets in the world are left staring at the final score. That is when sports stops being a science and reminds us why we love it.

Reach out with comments, suggestions, story ideas and more to cyote@dmcityview.com.

College football is back, and so are the memories

By Cyote Williams | Times Vedette 

College football made its triumphant return this week. While I still think it’s ludicrous that so many games are played at seemingly random days of the week instead of exclusively on Saturdays, the beginning of the season did give us arguably the biggest upset of the year already. UMass, which didn’t win a game last season — and hasn’t beat an FBS school since 2023 or beat a power conference school since 1978 — smoked Rutgers, 37-21.

What makes that even worse for Rutgers is the school paid UMass $1.55 million to play against them. It’s something larger colleges frequently do to convince smaller (worse) programs to essentially guarantee them a win. Well, even as a 29.5-point favorite, Rutgers got absolutely humiliated. The victory will stick in the minds of the fans of both teams forever. It brought back  some of my favorite college football memories from over the years.

My first remembrances of college football are from ISU games my stepdad took me to when I was younger and he and my mom first started dating. I have plenty of memories of those games, but none sticks out more than watching Todd Blythe, one of the team’s best-ever players, snatch a game winner with one hand to beat Toledo in triple overtime.

Ask most any Cyclone football fan, and they can tell you where they were the night a middling ISU team blew up the BCS system, defeating No. 2 Oklahoma State in one of the most heralded upsets of all time. OSU clobbering the Clones seemed like a foregone conclusion, a quick stop on their way to the national title game. Brandon Weedon, a Heisman favorite, would surely pick apart ISU’s defense. He didn’t. An electric Jack Trice stadium proved to be too much for the Cowboys, and ISU running back Jeff Woody will never be forgotten by fans. That win resulted in fans storming the field, and it was my favorite college football moment of all time.

ISU pulled off another gargantuan upset, this time against No. 4 TCU. The Cyclones were ranked No. 25 heading into this game, so not quite the same earth-shattering upset as the one against OSU but a major one, nonetheless. Early in the Matt Campbell era, this game showed what the team was capable of doing. I vividly remember when ISU picked off TCU with 1:17 left in the game. An older Cyclone fan looked at my friends and me and said, “You better get down there,” seemingly knowing the field storming was coming. It was great advice. My friends and I high-tailed it from our seats and were on the field in what seemed like an instant.

The date of that game was Oct. 28, and my friends and I went out for Halloween parties immediately after. You can imagine how college students in Ames were behaving after a huge upset during Halloween.

Matt Campbell’s reign in the year’s following provided even more great memories. Sure, there were some bad ones, too. It’s almost a requirement for ISU sports to have some disappointments baked in. But focusing on the positives that stick out: the Fiesta Bowl win over Oregon; a win over No. 3 Oklahoma in Norman the same year as the TCU win; and ISU’s 10-win season in 2024.

This new season under Jimmy Rogers provides another opportunity for memories to become logged into my mind. The same goes for Hawkeye and Panther fans, and whichever team you support. I’m excited, and I hope you are, too.

Have a favorite college football memory of your own? Reach out to tell me, or give me any comments, suggestions or story ideas at cyote@dmcityview.com.

Disappointed in Des Moines soccer failure

By Cyote Williams | Times Vedette

This news might not concern the people of Guthrie County too much, unless some of you are as big of soccer fans as I am.

The city of Des Moines, citing budget shortfalls, decided to end negotiations with Krause Group over a proposed downtown soccer stadium that would have brought both a professional men’s and women’s soccer team to the area.

I will not bore you with all the nitty-gritty financial details, even though there are plenty of them. The long and short of it is that Krause Group, Des Moines and a whole bunch of other organizations have been trying to put together funding for this project for seven years. Naturally, the pandemic created a snag, and since then, costs have gone up.

If there was a finger to point at for whose fault it was that this project had not gotten off the ground, let alone started or finished, it was often pointed at Krause Group. Years later, with the funding finally secure, the city of Des Moines backed out.

It will be difficult for people to find much sympathy for the Krauses, who have burned through plenty of public goodwill. Truthfully, though, I am not interested in pointing fingers or placing blame. I am just disappointed.

That is right. I am taking the stance of a frustrated parent. As a kid, what stung more than being chewed out, grounded, having your toys taken away or being sent to your room was Mom or Dad saying, “I am not mad. I am just disappointed.”

I have been patiently and excitedly awaiting a professional soccer team to come to the metro for years. I already wake up at the wee hours of the morning to watch my favorite soccer team in London play.

If I had a local soccer team to support — maybe Des Moines FC, or perhaps the Pork Tenderloin Soccer Club — I really would not care what they called it. I, along with many other soccer-crazed fans, was ready to throw my support behind an honest-to-God professional soccer team.

Take a look at the other professional sports organizations in Des Moines. The Iowa Wild, Iowa Wolves and Iowa Cubs are often noted as some of the most well-attended and well-watched minor league teams in their respective leagues.

I understand soccer is lower on the totem pole than those sports, but I believe the city would rally around it. Either way, the project, at least for now, feels dead in the water, and we will not get to find out.

What hurts the most was the reaction from many of my friends — friends I know would happily attend these games. They were not angry. They were not even disappointed. There was more of an air of, “That is just Des Moines for you.” A growing expectation of missing out on, or giving up on, doing the “cool” thing. They did not even get their hopes up in the first place. That is something the city should be trying to do more of. Excite people. Find ways to make things work.

If Des Moines really is supposed to be a city that punches above its weight, then it should start punching harder. Maybe that is naïve of me to say. And, like I said, I left out the nitty-gritty financial details of this project. But it just feels like Des Moines used to make fun, interesting and exciting things happen through sheer force of will. There was a sense that if someone had a big idea, the city would figure out a way to make it happen. This stadium project somehow falling apart after clearing what should have been the final hurdle feels entirely too familiar.

So, no, I am not mad. I am just disappointed.

Reach out with comments, suggestions, story ideas and more to cyote@dmcityview.com.

New coaches, familiar faces set the stage for ACGC and Panorama fall sports

By Cyote Williams | Times Vedette

Fall sports for ACGC and Panorama are right around the corner. ACGC football and volleyball, and Panorama volleyball are participating in scrimmages, and Panorama plays a week 0 game later tonight. And, by next week, the cross country programs for both schools join the party. With each new sports season comes a new sports guide from Big Green Umbrella Media. I’ve interviewed every head coach in each of these programs across the two schools to find out what to expect from all the teams.

Panorama

Panorama football is heading in a new direction after being led by Charlie Lake the last few seasons. The Panthers experienced back to back 1-7 seasons and have now pivoted to Jim Demers. Demers is in the Buena Vista Hall of Fame for his performances in football and basketball. He has 20 years of football coaching experience under his belt and is ready to bring Panorama football into prominence.

The volleyball team is also under new leadership with Mollie Lint stepping down and Angela Mincy taking her place. The volleyball program saw several years of steady improvement under Lint. The team had won double-digit games in back-to-back seasons for the first time. Mincy has been an assistant for the past five years and brings plenty of experience as an AAU coach as well. She will look to continue the program on its current trajectory.

There is no coaching change for the two cross country programs, however, as the indomitable Greg Thompson steers the ships for another year. The boys and girls did not qualify for state as team or qualify any individuals for the state meet. That is a rarity under Thompson, but it looks like it will be short lived. The boys return several solid runners, and he says all made great strides throughout last season. For the girls, two-time all-state runner Kylie Rochholz is back to full health for her senior season with several solid runners joining her on a team that narrowly missed the state meet without Rochholz last year.

ACGC

Perhaps the biggest offseason news for any of these programs was the departure of ACGC football coach Cody Matthewson. Matthewson led the program for eight years, including three straight 10-1 seasons the last three years. In his place comes Will Shull, who had been an assistant for the last two seasons. Shull will be a familiar face for the players and the staff that remains largely intact. He says he doesn’t plan on changing too much with the program. If your team won 30 games in the last three years, would you? I wouldn’t either. It will be interesting to see how the Chargers and Shull handle the transition.

ACGC volleyball has also had a solid program for the last decade and then some. The girls were led by Caley Vaughan last season, who took them from a 20-11 season to 24-12. That’s just one win shy of the team’s all-time best record of 25-7 set back in 2013-2014. The Chargers did graduate some solid players from last season, but their star hitter Stella Largent returns for her senior year. Largent’s 514 kills were the fourth most in the state last season. Before that, her 443 were eighth most in the state. Even as a freshman, she led the Chargers with 317 kills (92nd best in the state). A total of 730 kills led the entire state last season. Could Largent reach those heights this season? We will soon see.

ACGC cross country will also have a new head coach with Gabe Soda. Soda was an assistant coach at Madrid last year and was also the head junior high track coach. He has only been out of college for two years, but his personal running experience rivals most. Soda’s list of accomplishments as a runner at Cornell College is long. He will aim to translate that success to a Charger program that could use a jolt. The boys have an excellent runner in Preston Kent, who is coming off of a successful track and field season, and the girls have another excellent runner in Cadence Petersen. Both qualified for the state meet last year.

New coaches, returning stars and high expectations make this a fall sports season worth watching. From the football fields to the volleyball courts and cross-country courses, ACGC and Panorama have plenty of storylines to follow. The season is here, and the formal action is about to begin.

Reach out with comments, suggestions, story ideas and more to cyote@dmcityview.com.

Football history is hiding in this spreadsheet

By Cyote Williams | Times Vedette

Thanks to research by Quinn Douglass, a local radio broadcaster for KQWC Radio and friend of mine, I now have access to historical football records for all of the teams within the West Central Activities Conference. Check it out HERE. Not only are the records for all of these programs here (dating back to 1992), but there is statistical data for nearly every single Iowa high school.

Let’s start with the ones you are likely the most interested in: Panorama and ACGC. Panorama’s all-time record since 1992 is 162-153. Their best season came in 2011 with a 10-1 record, district championship and playoff qualifier. As this column goes out, I’ll be interviewing Jim Demers, the new head football coach for the Panthers who will look to steer the ship back in the right direction after back-to-back 1-7 seasons.

ACGC, as most of you know, only became a school in 2016. The football program went winless in its inaugural season. Since then, the tide has very much turned for the Chargers. As of now, ACGC’s all-time record is 60-39 with three straight 10-1 seasons. Those campaigns were led by Cody Matthewson, who has since left for Van Meter. I interviewed new head coach, Will Shull, who has been an assistant under Matthewson recently. He hopes to continue the success the program has been having in recent years.

Before there was ACGC, there was Adair-Casey and Guthrie Center. Guthrie Center’s all-time record sits at 138-96. The best season was a 13-0 state championship winning campaign in 1996. Adair-Casey nearly has the best all-time win-loss ratio of any team in the conference with their record of 179-72. That includes back-to-back state championships in 2000 and 2001. Their 10-0 state-title-winning team is arguable their best. In terms of wins, AC was 12-1 in 2013 but did not win the big one.

Outside of those hometown team’s, this document is still fantastic. I looked up my alma mater, Des Moines Lincoln, as well. The school’s all-time record is 131-177. Not great, I know.

Two more fun tabs to look at are the 70% wins tab and the all-time wins leaders tab. With the requirements of playing at least 300 games and being active in 2025, West Lyon leads all high schools with an 84.51 winning percentage at a record of 333-61. I can’t even get those type of records on video games.

Naturally, West Lyon tops the chart for the most wins as well. Maybe I should make the trek out there and see one of their games. Or just wait for the state tournament and see them there, since it seems like an inevitability. Rounding out the top five for most wins is Harlan Community, 329 wins; Solon, 327 wins; Valley, West Des Moines, 321 wins; and Dowling Catholic, 320 wins.

I hope you enjoy that spreadsheet as much as I do. Feel free to reach out with interesting bits you find on it, or comments, suggestions and story ideas to cyote@dmcityview.com.

The good old days

By Cyote Williams | Times Vedette

We are in a dead zone for major league sports at the moment. The NFL hasn’t quite started although preseason games will be happening soon. The MLB is just past its All-Star break and trade deadline with a ways to go before the playoffs start. The NBA and NHL lay dormant, waiting for the cold weather to emerge to get their seasons underway. So, what is there to talk about?

I have been enjoying the tweets from the fairly new account, “20 Years Ago Sports.” Or @20YearsAgoSport on Twitter. (I refuse to call it X.) The purpose of the account is straightforward: They post highlights and news that was relevant to the day 20 years ago. Coincidently, for me, a 28 year old, the highlights and news that are posted re the stuff I was seeing when I was first getting into sports.

Here’s a funny one from yesterday. Competitive eater Kobayashi set a new world record, eating 58 Johnsonville Bratwursts in 10 minutes. Some of you might recognize that name. Others might recognize the man who finished in second: Joey Chestnut. Chestnut would win his first Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest championship the following year in 2007. Since then, he has won 18 in total. Chestnut and Kobayashi dogged it out in a Netflix special in 2024, “Unfinished Beef.” Chestnut would win and set a world record for eating 83 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes. Kobayashi finished a distant second at 66. That beef may be settled, but their stomachs aren’t. 

Another gem the account posts frequently is the SportsCenter top ten plays of the day. When I was a kid, I would watch SportsCenter almost every morning, getting up to date on the scores, highlights and storylines from around the country. The best part was the SC Top Ten. Some of the names in those highlights are becoming eligible for their respective Hall of Fames. One name, however, is still playing basketball at the highest level: LeBron James. Evergreen. These clips take me back to what ESPN once was before it divulged into the personality driven, hot take and gambling culture that dominates its airwaves today.

Something even better than the top ten plays? When SportsCenter would treat us to either the Not Top Ten, or the Hardly The Usual Top Ten. Cartwheels. Lawnmower races. Guys tripping. Groundcrew failures. It made for a good laugh.

Another favorite of mine the account posted was one of the old “this is SportsCenter” commercials. ESPN would showcase the world of sport like all of the country’s best athletes worked in cubicles. This one in particular featured the Manning brothers, Peyton and Eli.

It’s a fun blast from the past for people like me. There is something about the nostalgia and ability to reminisce on days gone by. I think that is reflected in our popular Yester Year section we post in each Times Vedette. People like to look upon the past. Like the great Andy Bernard from “The Office” said, “I wish there was a way to know you’re in the good old days before you’ve actually left them.”

Reach out with comments, suggestions, story ideas and more to cyote@dmcityview.com.